Match Preview : Holland v. Romania

June 16th, 2008 | By: Ian Rose | 27 Comments »

It’s time. It’s here. The most important match for the Romanian side since the Euro 2000 quarterfinal with Italy. So, what can we expect from the last group stage match for Holland and Romania in Euro 2008?

1. Know Your Enemy
Sun Tzu wrote that in his famous “The Art of War”, but he never had to face off against a team with nothing to play for. It’s hard to prepare for Holland in this match, because only Marco van Basten knows who will be taking the pitch for the Dutch, if he even does. Will he go conservative and rest guys like Sneijder, van Nistelrooy and van Bronckhorst? Or will he want to continue the fantastic form of his side and go for another high-flying win?

2. Mutu needs to use the pain
We all cringed for Adrian Mutu when he had that penalty saved. One of the big keys to this match will be the way that Mutu responds to the pain of missing that opportunity to put the Tricolorii into the quarterfinals. If he takes that frustration and puts it into his play the right way, he will be hard to stop. But Fiorentina fans know his temper, and he needs to keep it under control here.

3. Lobont is key
Bogdan Lobont can win this match. When cross after cross were hitting Luca Toni’s head, Lobont was there. Aside from that one, and we’re done talking about that one, he stopped those headers that have been so deadly this year. Can he do the same against whatever weapons Holland fields against him?

4. Our defense is better than yours
In qualifying, Romania shut Holland out twice. Not one goal. In this tournament, both the Tricolorii and the Oranje have allowed only one goal against France and Italy. Holland will be resting a center back, though, and a defensive midfielder as well, because both are on yellows. Defensive advantage goes to Romania, even without Dorin Goian, who is on a yellow suspension.

My prediction : Romania needs this, and Holland does not. But no one can question that Holland is playing the better football right now. As much as I hate to admit it, a lot of this match comes down to who Holland chooses. I’m going with my head on this one, and not my heart. 2-2, and Romania goes through with an Italy-France 1-1 draw. Good luck, and Hai Romania. Let’s enjoy this one, and hopefully, the next time we talk, we’ll be getting ready for Spain.



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Displaying the most recent 25 comments from a total of 27 comments.

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Username By Palestrina | June 17th, 2008 at 12:22 am
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“Well, I hope that all the Romanians living in France and Italy can at least manage to show some respect and not go out on the streets to celebrate knocking out the beloved teams of their generous new-found countries of choice.”
You really could not help yourself could you?

Good luck to all the teams tonight — and I’m glad we forced both France and Italy to actually need luck and gut each other — although I hardly believe that if we snatch a draw from Holland it’ll be anything more than 1-1 Ian. Still, your kind comments are much appreciated, truly!

Posted from Romania Romania

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Username By Ian Rose | June 17th, 2008 at 12:43 am
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1-1 may be more realistic, but I really do think that the Holland defense is going to be significantly weaker than both the ones faced in the qualifiers and the ones that have defeated France and Italy. We’ll see who starts.

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Username By goalcentre | June 17th, 2008 at 1:01 am
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A win for Romania and Italy and France will have to go home. That is what going to happen tonight. Although i support Italy, but i dont think they deserve to be in the quarter finals…

Posted from Malaysia Malaysia

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Username By Paul | June 17th, 2008 at 2:06 am
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Hey Ian,

I am saying no more, because I am already shaking in fear (and there are almost 12 hours until the game still), but mark my words: Romania will win 2-0 or 2-1.
HAI ROMANIA!!!

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Username By Octavian | June 17th, 2008 at 5:44 am
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HAI ROMANIA !
Impca Franta si Italia sa mearga impreuna acasa !
Go at home ITALY & France !
please see my site:
http://euro2008.bismarkrom.com
Mutu IL FENOMENO, SuperMUTU

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Username By Jasper | June 17th, 2008 at 6:57 am
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This is probably the first match of the Dutch team where I would not mind losing.

Posted from Germany Germany

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Username By julien | June 17th, 2008 at 7:19 am
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Although I am French and a Les Bleus fan, I have to admit that neither Italy or France deserve to advance. Romania and the Netherlands do. They both have played so well. I still can’t believe that Romania tied both World Cup 2006 finalists and almost won against Italy if Mutu didn’t miss that penalty.

Posted from United States United States

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Username By Bill | June 17th, 2008 at 7:48 am
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Ian,

A decent analysis, but i would not put too much emphasis on the 0-0, 1-0 qualification results.

Holland played a totally different system in the qualification rounds (4-3-3) compared to the system played since (4-2-3-1). Playing the new system resulted in 4 wins against Croatia (0-3), Austria (3-4), Ukraine (3-0) and Wales (2-0) and a draw against Denmark (1-1). And we all know what happended to France and Italy.

Not to mention the awful conditions surrounding the 1-0 win by the Romanians (weather, stadium, travel), the fact that Holland should cleary have won the game and the fact that Holland only conceided 3 goals during qualification. Oh wait, I just mentioned it.

hope romania go through though.

Regards,

Bill

Posted from United Kingdom United Kingdom

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Username By fc barcelona | June 17th, 2008 at 8:41 am
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Holland may be qualified but has a difficult task tonight. There were many cases where teams that choose ethics ended in failure. It might be the case tonight when Holland might help Italy go further in the tournament and, if the two will meet in the semifinal, I’d put all my money on Italy. Lets hope Holland knows this and will do what they have to do: knock Italy and France out.

Posted from Romania Romania

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Username By Henk | June 17th, 2008 at 8:45 am
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I think most people underestimate Romania’s quality .
They do have a dangerous team as both France and Italy already found out .
As a Dutchman I can tell you our team will go for a win , but i wont be surprised if it ends in a zero-zero ending .

Romania is strongly defensive and they will force our team in a technical gameplay , lots of ball-go-round situations …its not our gamestyle really. Mutu will be Ășnder strong observations i guess lol

Good luck to Romania ..

Regards,
Henk
Amsterdam

Posted from Netherlands Netherlands

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Username By Paul | June 17th, 2008 at 9:02 am
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Henk, you are right on the money, thank you for a very pertinent observation. Most people still believe that Romania is some sort of fluke totally disregarding their recent results and very good performance. We beat Netherlands and drew with them in the qualifying, we held Italy and France, what more do we have to do in order to prove that we are in the world’s top 10?

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Username By Paul | June 17th, 2008 at 9:10 am
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As a side note, I must add: UEFA did a terrible mistake because there was even the possibility of these 4 teams to end up together in the same group. In my opinion, all the 4 teams present in this group deserve a place in the quarter finals. What should be changed? The system of the heads of the groups. Who is organizing the tournament should not be a factor in this, in my opinion. Same story could happen in 4 years, when Poland and Ukraine will host Euro.
UEFA, learn from tennis, and see how the best players only play among themselves in the upper stages of the competitions.

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Username By julien | June 17th, 2008 at 12:07 pm
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How will Mutu play today? Will he still feel devastated about that penalty miss?

Posted from United States United States

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Username By Ian Rose | June 17th, 2008 at 12:08 pm
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Paul : Don’t get me started on the Group of Death thing. It’s just ridiculous. An hour and a half to go now, folks. Romania needs a draw to have hope, but a win to be sure of moving on. I’ll be liveblogging the match for those that can’t watch it on the main page at http://euro2008.worldcupblog.org

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Username By Paul | June 17th, 2008 at 12:11 pm
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My heart is racing already, Ian.
If by an unfortunate twist of fate Romania is eliminated, I want to thank you in advance for the great job that you’ve done here with this blog.

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Username By Palestrina | June 17th, 2008 at 12:19 pm
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I’ll add my voice to Paul’s in thanking you for taking on this blog. It was good to see the discussion initiated and moderated by such a balanced person. ’twas a real pleasure.

As to the match, I really do hope you’re right on 2-2, although I’m still too negative a person to see us doing any better than 1-1 heh. Hope to be proven wrong, least I’d get a bit of schadenfreude from watching the french and italians react to that haha.

Posted from Romania Romania

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Username By Vyo | June 17th, 2008 at 1:10 pm
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35 more minutes !!! HAI ROMANiA !!! Let’s send the Blue guys home !!! :D

Posted from United States United States

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Username By Ian Rose | June 17th, 2008 at 1:38 pm
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Come on over to the front page now if you want to follow along with the game. Thanks everybody.

Posted from United States United States

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Username By Sorin | June 17th, 2008 at 4:24 pm
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It seems A. Mutu didn’t want to follow Ahn Jung-Hwan’s history, so, he will have some more wonderful years in Italy? How about self respect, Adi?
Enjoy your next 4-20 million euro, you deserve them.

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Username By Mic | June 17th, 2008 at 11:09 pm
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Funny how the myth of a strong Romanian side persisted right up to their complete (self-)humiliation during their last half at this tournament.
Paul: nobody I heard claimed that Romania was a “fluke” or didn’t qualify deservedly. But it was more and more obvious DURING this tournament that they played like shit, mostly (probably) due to bad mental preparation and strategy.
What would it take to consider Romania part of the world’s top ten? Playing inspired, focused, precise, and yes, attractive football. Again, DURING this tournament Romania didn’t do this, not even for one half of a game (I actually count the first 20 min. of their France game as their most focused period.)
Sympathizing with a team should not prevent one from being objective. The Dutch played world-class. Romania played second-class or worse.

Posted from United States United States

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Username By Ian Rose | June 17th, 2008 at 11:20 pm
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DURING this tournament, they drew with both World Cup finalists. For a team without nearly the star power of France or Italy, that is a feat in itself.

As for objectivity, show me a completely objective football fan and I’ll owe you a drink.

I’d also disagree with you that the first 20 minutes against France was the strongest time. To me, there was a run of play against Italy when they were at their best. Still, the whole tournament, the finishing was never there for Romania, and that in the end was the biggest reason they’re headed home. They didn’t have enough aggression and finishing quality.

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Username By Vyo | June 18th, 2008 at 12:29 pm
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Dude all these newspapers, articles, and our coach’s – Piturca – talk about how it’s Mutu’s fault he missed the penalty. WOW Mutu was the only player that actually tried to play in this competition. Ridiculos… pathetic… I used to like Piturca, but I really believe it’s his fault, if we really need to blame someone. Playing so defensive was never our strategy. He came and tried to impose a completely different game style on our team and that’s what screwed us. If Iordanescu was our coach we would have won against France and Italy and played a open spectacular game. Instead we played most of this tournament in our half of the field. pff anyway, I’m looking forward to a new coach and the World Cup. Peace Out

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Username By Mic | June 18th, 2008 at 11:27 pm
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I have no beef with Mutu or any of the players. I’m sure they did what they could.
Ian Rose: As with ‘objectivity’: that’s a fake challenge. Nobody is ‘objective’, but some people cut through the crap better than others. You owe me a drink already (but I’m located in the States). What I’m taking issue with is the claim that Romania played well. If your measure is the “rank” of its opponents, we have very different methodologies, which would explain our differences in analysis.
France played like crap (reflected in your site’s ‘rankinks’). Italy did too, but they’re better fighters, something of a truism too.
“Group of Death”? Give me a break. Group of the Dead is more accurate, with the exception of the Dutch of course.
To make my point slightly differently: If you had Euro 100, would you spend it on a a) Romania-Sweden, or b) Russia-Sweden game? (Note the nationalities of the coaches…)
Oh, I see: you just don’t care if you see attacking and exciting football or kicking the ball around for most of the time…

Posted from United States United States

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Username By Mic | June 19th, 2008 at 12:06 am
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In reading your defense-happy pre-game analysis again: It’s kind of funny, at the risk of repeating myself.

“…both the Tricolorii and the Oranje have allowed only one goal against France and Italy”.

Yeah, but Romania scored ONE (on a blatant defensive mistake) and the Dutch scored what: NINE? Just a slight difference, no doubt explicable by some statistical acrobatics.

Posted from United States United States

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Username By Ian Rose | June 19th, 2008 at 12:12 am
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Mic – Let’s be clear on that last point. It was a defensive argument. Never once did I argue that Romania had the attack that Holland did. In fact, what I said was that Holland was the team of the tournament so far, which I stand by. That whole paragraph was about defense, so as much as I love to warp statistics into lies, damned lies, etc, this time I’m innocent.

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